May 9, 2002
UFC Middleweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Murilo Bustamante |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 115 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +42 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Murilo Bustamante |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 067 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +65 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Murilo Bustamante captured the UFC Middleweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Murilo Bustamante |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:33 | 1:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 174 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +80 |
Murilo Bustamante earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:33, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Matt Lindland was submitted.
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Murilo Bustamante |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 66 | 40 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 82 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 292 | 1 232 |
| ELO Change | -82 | +82 |
Matt Lindland controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (82 vs 39 total strikes), significant strike advantage (35 vs 17), superior accuracy (53.0% vs 42.5%). However, since Matt Lindland lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Murilo Bustamante's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Murilo Bustamante |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:57 | 3:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 133 | 1 273 |
| ELO Change | -121 | +121 |
Murilo Bustamante dominated Matt Lindland on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:11 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Murilo Bustamante |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 49 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 123 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +65 |
Murilo Bustamante demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Murilo Bustamante capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Lindland's 49-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Murilo Bustamante |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 083 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +31 |
Murilo Bustamante extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Lindland is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Murilo Bustamante |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 058 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.