February 27, 2003
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 167 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Matt Lindland's 2-fight experience advantage (7 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Lindland for the expected result. Had Phil Baroni pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 104 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 250 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Matt Lindland earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 76 | 73 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 180 | 83 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 332 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Matt Lindland dominated the striking exchanges with 180 vs 83 total strikes. Matt Lindland capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 13 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:12 | 0:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 24 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 1 265 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Matt Lindland controlled Phil Baroni on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 10:12 of control time, 24 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 181 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -16 |
Matt Lindland demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Lindland capitalized on this activity level, while Phil Baroni's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 123 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -18 |
Matt Lindland extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Phil Baroni is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Lindland | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 096 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

