Matt Lindland vs Phil Baroni

February 27, 2003

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1190
(+27)
Matt Lindland
Winner: Matt Lindland
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Matt Lindland+27
Phil Baroni-25
1067
(-25)
Phil Baroni

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Lindland: +24Phil Baroni: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt LindlandPhil Baroni
Total UFC Fights75
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 1671 036
ELO Change+24-24
💡

What Happened

Matt Lindland's 2-fight experience advantage (7 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Lindland for the expected result. Had Phil Baroni pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Lindland: +19Phil Baroni: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt LindlandPhil Baroni
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1041 025
ELO Change+19-19
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Lindland: +42Phil Baroni: -42

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt LindlandPhil Baroni
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 2501 163
ELO Change+42-42
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What Happened

Matt Lindland earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Lindland: +22Phil Baroni: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt LindlandPhil Baroni
Significant Strikes Landed4044
Significant Strikes Attempted7673
Total Strikes Landed18083
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 3321 180
ELO Change+22-22
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What Happened

Matt Lindland dominated the striking exchanges with 180 vs 83 total strikes. Matt Lindland capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Lindland: +41Phil Baroni: -41

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt LindlandPhil Baroni
Takedowns Landed41
Takedowns Attempted132
Ground Control Time10:120:48
Ground Strikes Landed2417
Ground ELO1 2651 026
ELO Change+41-41
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What Happened

Matt Lindland controlled Phil Baroni on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 10:12 of control time, 24 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Lindland: +28Phil Baroni: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt LindlandPhil Baroni
Days Since Last Fight155155
Activity ELO1 1811 052
ELO Change+28-16
💡

What Happened

Matt Lindland demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Lindland capitalized on this activity level, while Phil Baroni's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Lindland: +21Phil Baroni: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt LindlandPhil Baroni
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 1231 032
ELO Change+21-18
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What Happened

Matt Lindland extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Phil Baroni is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Lindland: +19Phil Baroni: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt LindlandPhil Baroni
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0961 023
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.