April 5, 2013
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Philip De Fries |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 092 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Matt Mitrione's 3-fight experience advantage (8 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Mitrione for the expected result. Had Philip De Fries pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Philip De Fries |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 066 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Philip De Fries |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:19 | 0:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 274 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -22 |
Matt Mitrione secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:19 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Philip De Fries |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 2 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 180 | 853 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -56 |
Matt Mitrione slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 7 vs 0 significant strikes, 77.8% vs 0.0% accuracy. Matt Mitrione capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Philip De Fries |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 078 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -66 |
Matt Mitrione controlled Philip De Fries on the ground with 6 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Philip De Fries |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 150 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -15 |
Matt Mitrione demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Mitrione capitalized on this activity level, while Philip De Fries's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Philip De Fries |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 096 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -16 |
Matt Mitrione started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Philip De Fries is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Philip De Fries |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 066 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.