December 14, 2012
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 063 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (7 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 048 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:58 | 2:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 211 | 1 355 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +91 |
Roy Nelson earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:58, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 53 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 124 | 1 284 |
| ELO Change | -125 | +125 |
Roy Nelson controlled the striking exchanges with 23 vs 13 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Roy Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:20 | 0:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 012 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Roy Nelson landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 414 | 204 |
| Activity ELO | 1 112 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +27 |
Roy Nelson demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Roy Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Mitrione's 414-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 078 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +30 |
Roy Nelson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Mitrione is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 048 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.