January 21, 2011
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Tim Hague |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 109 | 919 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -19 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Tim Hague |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 078 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Tim Hague |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:59 | 2:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 244 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -19 |
Matt Mitrione earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:59, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Tim Hague |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 8 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 231 | 801 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Matt Mitrione dominated the striking exchanges with 16 vs 3 significant strikes, 59.3% vs 37.5% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Matt Mitrione capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Tim Hague |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:14 | 0:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 112 | 918 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Matt Mitrione landed 2 knockdowns followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Tim Hague |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 120 | 260 |
| Activity ELO | 1 127 | 947 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -13 |
Matt Mitrione demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Mitrione capitalized on this activity level, while Tim Hague's 260-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Tim Hague |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 095 | 948 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -14 |
Matt Mitrione extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tim Hague is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Mitrione | Tim Hague |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 078 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.