June 22, 2018
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Naoki Inoue |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 022 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Matt Schnell's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Schnell for the expected result. Had Naoki Inoue pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Naoki Inoue |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 007 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Naoki Inoue |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 003 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Matt Schnell receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Naoki Inoue |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 71 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 183 | 196 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 79 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 957 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Matt Schnell controlled the striking exchanges with 71 vs 48 significant strikes, 38.8% vs 24.5% accuracy. Matt Schnell capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Naoki Inoue |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 941 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Matt Schnell did not secure a significant ground advantage against Naoki Inoue on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Naoki Inoue |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 259 | 371 |
| Activity ELO | 1 033 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -22 |
Matt Schnell demonstrated standard activity with 259 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Schnell capitalized on this activity level, while Naoki Inoue's 371-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Naoki Inoue |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 017 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -23 |
Matt Schnell extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Naoki Inoue is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Naoki Inoue |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 007 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

