March 1, 2024
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 043 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +46 |
Steve Erceg overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 13 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Matt Schnell.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 011 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:26 | 0:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 076 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +93 |
Steve Erceg gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 34 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 78 | 72 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 25 | 34 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 893 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -71 | +71 |
Steve Erceg controlled the striking exchanges with 34 vs 22 significant strikes, 47.2% vs 28.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Steve Erceg capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 028 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 455 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 100 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +63 |
Steve Erceg demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Steve Erceg capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Schnell's 455-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 034 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +28 |
Steve Erceg extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Schnell is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 011 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.