July 15, 2022
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 096 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Matt Schnell's 6-fight experience advantage (11 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Schnell for the expected result. Had Sumudaerji pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 049 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:24 | 4:24 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 161 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | +73 | -47 |
Matt Schnell earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:24, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Sumudaerji was submitted.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 47 | 58 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 81 | 83 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 79 | 67 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 020 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Sumudaerji controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (58 vs 47), superior accuracy (69.9% vs 58.0%), 1 knockdown. However, since Sumudaerji lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Matt Schnell's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:40 | 2:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 22 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 1 087 | 901 |
| ELO Change | +89 | -89 |
Matt Schnell dominated Sumudaerji on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:40 of control time, 22 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 70 | 542 |
| Activity ELO | 1 147 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -23 |
Matt Schnell demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Matt Schnell capitalized on this activity level, while Sumudaerji's 542-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 073 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Matt Schnell started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sumudaerji is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Schnell | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 049 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.