Matt Serra vs Shonie Carter

May 3, 2001

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

968
(-32)
Matt Serra
Winner: Shonie Carter
KO/TKO
Round 3 • 4:51

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Matt Serra-32
Shonie Carter+37
1106
(+37)
Shonie Carter

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Serra: -27Shonie Carter: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt SerraShonie Carter
Total UFC Fights13
Experience Gap-22
Experience ELO9731 078
ELO Change-27+27
💡

What Happened

Shonie Carter's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Shonie Carter for the expected result. Had Matt Serra pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Serra: -19Shonie Carter: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt SerraShonie Carter
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9811 060
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Serra: -32Shonie Carter: +64

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt SerraShonie Carter
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round33
Time of Finish4:514:51
Win Type ELO9681 147
ELO Change-32+64
💡

What Happened

Shonie Carter gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Serra: -106Shonie Carter: +106

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt SerraShonie Carter
Significant Strikes Landed1018
Significant Strikes Attempted2533
Total Strikes Landed2749
Knockdowns Scored02
Striking ELO8941 176
ELO Change-106+106
💡

What Happened

Shonie Carter dominated the striking exchanges with 49 vs 27 total strikes, 18 vs 10 significant strikes, 54.5% vs 40.0% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Shonie Carter capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Serra: -22Shonie Carter: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt SerraShonie Carter
Takedowns Landed22
Takedowns Attempted133
Ground Control Time4:316:03
Ground Strikes Landed22
Ground ELO9781 171
ELO Change-22+22
💡

What Happened

Shonie Carter landed 2 knockdowns followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Serra: -17Shonie Carter: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt SerraShonie Carter
Days Since Last FightN/A329
Activity ELO9831 087
ELO Change-17+17
💡

What Happened

Shonie Carter demonstrated standard activity with 329 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Shonie Carter capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Serra's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Serra: -18Shonie Carter: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt SerraShonie Carter
Win Streak03
Win Streak ELO9821 071
ELO Change-18+24
💡

What Happened

Shonie Carter extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Serra is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Serra: -19Shonie Carter: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt SerraShonie Carter
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9811 060
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.