April 9, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Veach | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 018 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Paul Kelly's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Paul Kelly for the expected result. Had Matt Veach pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Veach | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Veach | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:41 | 3:41 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 019 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +61 |
Paul Kelly earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:41, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Matt Veach was submitted.
| Metric | Matt Veach | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 73 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 110 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 942 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -121 | +121 |
Paul Kelly dominated the striking exchanges with 110 vs 9 total strikes, 47 vs 4 significant strikes, 64.4% vs 44.4% accuracy. Paul Kelly capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Veach | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:26 | 5:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 36 |
| Ground ELO | 916 | 1 214 |
| ELO Change | -90 | +90 |
Paul Kelly dominated Matt Veach on the ground with 0 takedowns, 5:25 of control time, 36 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Matt Veach | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 991 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +34 |
Paul Kelly demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Paul Kelly capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Veach's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Veach | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 988 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Paul Kelly started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Veach is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Veach | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

