Matt Veach vs Paul Kelly

April 9, 2010

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

980
(-45)
Matt Veach
Winner: Paul Kelly
Submission
Round 2 • 3:41

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Matt Veach-45
Paul Kelly+50
1094
(+50)
Paul Kelly

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Veach: -30Paul Kelly: +30

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt VeachPaul Kelly
Total UFC Fights36
Experience Gap-33
Experience ELO1 0181 091
ELO Change-30+30
💡

What Happened

Paul Kelly's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Paul Kelly for the expected result. Had Matt Veach pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Veach: -20Paul Kelly: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt VeachPaul Kelly
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9841 042
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Veach: -39Paul Kelly: +61

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt VeachPaul Kelly
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish3:413:41
Win Type ELO1 0191 141
ELO Change-39+61
💡

What Happened

Paul Kelly earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:41, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Matt Veach was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Veach: -121Paul Kelly: +121

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt VeachPaul Kelly
Significant Strikes Landed447
Significant Strikes Attempted973
Total Strikes Landed9110
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO9421 053
ELO Change-121+121
💡

What Happened

Paul Kelly dominated the striking exchanges with 110 vs 9 total strikes, 47 vs 4 significant strikes, 64.4% vs 44.4% accuracy. Paul Kelly capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Veach: -90Paul Kelly: +90

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt VeachPaul Kelly
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted10
Ground Control Time2:265:25
Ground Strikes Landed236
Ground ELO9161 214
ELO Change-90+90
💡

What Happened

Paul Kelly dominated Matt Veach on the ground with 0 takedowns, 5:25 of control time, 36 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Veach: -17Paul Kelly: +34

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt VeachPaul Kelly
Days Since Last Fight126147
Activity ELO9911 111
ELO Change-17+34
💡

What Happened

Paul Kelly demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Paul Kelly capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Veach's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Veach: -19Paul Kelly: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt VeachPaul Kelly
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9881 054
ELO Change-19+21
💡

What Happened

Paul Kelly started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Veach is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Matt Veach: -20Paul Kelly: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricMatt VeachPaul Kelly
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9841 042
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.