September 28, 2012
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 147 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Matt Wiman's 9-fight experience advantage (13 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Wiman for the expected result. Had Paul Sass pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 093 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:48 | 3:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 308 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -38 |
Matt Wiman earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:48, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 4 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 163 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Paul Sass controlled the striking through superior accuracy (60.0% vs 75.0%). However, since Paul Sass lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Matt Wiman's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:40 | 2:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 284 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Matt Wiman edged out Paul Sass on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:40 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 364 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 192 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Matt Wiman demonstrated standard activity with 364 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Matt Wiman capitalized on this activity level, while Paul Sass's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 125 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -20 |
Matt Wiman extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paul Sass is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 093 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.