December 11, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 058 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Matt Wiman's 4-fight experience advantage (8 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Wiman for the expected result. Had Shane Nelson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 035 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 136 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Matt Wiman earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 130 | 85 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 82 | 45 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 072 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Matt Wiman controlled the striking exchanges with 82 vs 45 total strikes, 55 vs 20 significant strikes, 42.3% vs 23.5% accuracy. Matt Wiman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:38 | 1:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 17 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 152 | 925 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Matt Wiman controlled Shane Nelson on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 5:38 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 1 101 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -19 |
Matt Wiman demonstrated standard activity with 239 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Wiman capitalized on this activity level, while Shane Nelson's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 054 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Matt Wiman started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Shane Nelson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matt Wiman | Shane Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 035 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

