July 12, 2016
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Rani Yahya |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 975 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Rani Yahya's 9-fight experience advantage (10 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rani Yahya for the expected result. Had Matthew Lopez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Rani Yahya |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Rani Yahya |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:19 | 4:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 976 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +36 |
Rani Yahya earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:19, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Matthew Lopez was submitted.
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Rani Yahya |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 75 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 26 | 109 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 961 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Rani Yahya dominated the striking exchanges with 109 vs 26 total strikes, 40 vs 14 significant strikes, 53.3% vs 41.2% accuracy. Rani Yahya capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Rani Yahya |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:05 | 7:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 899 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -101 | +101 |
Rani Yahya dominated Matthew Lopez on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 7:39 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Rani Yahya |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 364 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Rani Yahya demonstrated standard activity with 364 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Rani Yahya capitalized on this activity level, while Matthew Lopez's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Rani Yahya |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +21 |
Rani Yahya extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matthew Lopez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Rani Yahya |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.