November 10, 2017
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 050 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Raphael Assuncao's 8-fight experience advantage (12 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Raphael Assuncao for the expected result. Had Matthew Lopez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 015 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:50 | 1:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 139 | 1 330 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +60 |
Raphael Assuncao gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 46 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 93 | 154 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 48 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 064 | 1 342 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Raphael Assuncao controlled the striking exchanges with 46 vs 34 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Raphael Assuncao capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:29 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 064 | 1 330 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
Raphael Assuncao did not secure a significant ground advantage against Matthew Lopez on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 1 058 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +21 |
Raphael Assuncao demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Raphael Assuncao capitalized on this activity level, while Matthew Lopez's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 028 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +15 |
Raphael Assuncao extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matthew Lopez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Matthew Lopez | Raphael Assuncao |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 015 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.