November 20, 2020
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 152 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +75 |
Paul Craig overcame a 11-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 22 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Mauricio Rua.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 096 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:36 | 3:36 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 332 | 1 303 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +136 |
Paul Craig gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 57 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 25 | 54 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 129 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -122 | +122 |
Paul Craig controlled the striking exchanges with 54 vs 25 total strikes, 29 vs 10 significant strikes, 50.9% vs 35.7% accuracy. Paul Craig capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:44 | 3:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 129 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | -109 | +109 |
Paul Craig controlled Mauricio Rua on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 3:46 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 120 | 120 |
| Activity ELO | 1 203 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +57 |
Paul Craig demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Paul Craig capitalized on this activity level, while Mauricio Rua's 120-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 101 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +31 |
Paul Craig extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mauricio Rua is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 061 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.