July 31, 2015
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 142 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Mauricio Rua's 7-fight experience advantage (15 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mauricio Rua for the expected result. Had Rogerio Nogueira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 082 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 335 | 1 242 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Mauricio Rua earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 53 | 63 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 98 | 166 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 82 | 73 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 136 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Rogerio Nogueira controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (63 vs 53), superior accuracy (38.0% vs 54.1%). However, since Rogerio Nogueira lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Mauricio Rua's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:19 | 0:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 166 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +77 | -77 |
Mauricio Rua controlled Rogerio Nogueira on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:19 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 266 | 371 |
| Activity ELO | 1 181 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -17 |
Mauricio Rua demonstrated standard activity with 266 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Mauricio Rua capitalized on this activity level, while Rogerio Nogueira's 371-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 068 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Mauricio Rua started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rogerio Nogueira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 030 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.