July 24, 2020
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 195 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Mauricio Rua's 8-fight experience advantage (21 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mauricio Rua for the expected result. Had Rogerio Nogueira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 122 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 398 | 1 296 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Mauricio Rua receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 54 | 46 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 103 | 100 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 78 | 75 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 251 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Mauricio Rua edged the striking exchanges with 54 vs 46 significant strikes. Mauricio Rua capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:57 | 1:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 238 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Mauricio Rua edged out Rogerio Nogueira on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:57 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 252 | 441 |
| Activity ELO | 1 231 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -14 |
Mauricio Rua demonstrated standard activity with 252 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Mauricio Rua capitalized on this activity level, while Rogerio Nogueira's 441-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 127 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Mauricio Rua started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rogerio Nogueira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 085 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.