November 30, 2018
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 13 | -13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 180 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Mauricio Rua's 13-fight experience advantage (19 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mauricio Rua for the expected result. Had Tyson Pedro pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 111 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:43 | 0:43 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 397 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -20 |
Mauricio Rua gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 56 | 44 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 262 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -66 |
Mauricio Rua controlled the striking exchanges with 62 vs 36 total strikes, 53.6% vs 70.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Mauricio Rua capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:18 | 0:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 17 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 226 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Mauricio Rua controlled Tyson Pedro on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 5:18 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 1 221 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -14 |
Mauricio Rua demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Mauricio Rua capitalized on this activity level, while Tyson Pedro's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 113 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -17 |
Mauricio Rua started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tyson Pedro is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mauricio Rua | Tyson Pedro |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 070 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.