December 7, 2024
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Max Griffin | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 123 | 1 291 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Michael Chiesa's 3-fight experience advantage (20 vs 17 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Michael Chiesa for the expected result. Had Max Griffin pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 031 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:56 | 1:56 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 227 | 1 439 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +38 |
Michael Chiesa earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:56, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Max Griffin was submitted.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 39 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 54 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 245 | 1 287 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Michael Chiesa controlled the striking exchanges with 54 vs 18 total strikes. Michael Chiesa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:19 | 3:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 145 | 1 338 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Michael Chiesa controlled Max Griffin on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:48 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 302 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 1 196 | 1 312 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +34 |
Michael Chiesa demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Michael Chiesa capitalized on this activity level, while Max Griffin's 302-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 068 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +18 |
Michael Chiesa extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Max Griffin is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 029 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.