February 1, 2019
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Max Griffin | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 25 |
| Experience Gap | -19 | 19 |
| Experience ELO | 980 | 937 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Thiago Alves's 19-fight experience advantage (25 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Alves for the expected result. Had Max Griffin pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 974 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 076 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Thiago Alves receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 112 | 83 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 154 | 135 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 117 | 91 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 113 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Max Griffin controlled the striking through superior volume (117 vs 91 total strikes), significant strike advantage (112 vs 83), superior accuracy (72.7% vs 61.5%), 1 knockdown. However, since Max Griffin lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Thiago Alves's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:38 | 1:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 982 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Thiago Alves did not secure a significant ground advantage against Max Griffin on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:13 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 211 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 054 | 1 267 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +22 |
Thiago Alves demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Max Griffin's 211-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +15 |
Thiago Alves started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Max Griffin is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 974 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

