Max Griffin vs Thiago Alves

February 1, 2019

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1017
(-19)
Max Griffin
Winner: Thiago Alves
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Max Griffin-19
Thiago Alves+20
1116
(+20)
Thiago Alves

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Max Griffin: -43Thiago Alves: +43

Performance Statistics

MetricMax GriffinThiago Alves
Total UFC Fights625
Experience Gap-1919
Experience ELO980937
ELO Change-43+43
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What Happened

Thiago Alves's 19-fight experience advantage (25 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Alves for the expected result. Had Max Griffin pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Max Griffin: -17Thiago Alves: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricMax GriffinThiago Alves
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9741 078
ELO Change-17+17
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Max Griffin: -7Thiago Alves: +7

Performance Statistics

MetricMax GriffinThiago Alves
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 0761 227
ELO Change-7+7
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Thiago Alves receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Max Griffin: -22Thiago Alves: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricMax GriffinThiago Alves
Significant Strikes Landed11283
Significant Strikes Attempted154135
Total Strikes Landed11791
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 1131 145
ELO Change-22+22
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What Happened

Max Griffin controlled the striking through superior volume (117 vs 91 total strikes), significant strike advantage (112 vs 83), superior accuracy (72.7% vs 61.5%), 1 knockdown. However, since Max Griffin lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Thiago Alves's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Max Griffin: -19Thiago Alves: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricMax GriffinThiago Alves
Takedowns Landed20
Takedowns Attempted41
Ground Control Time3:381:13
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO9821 060
ELO Change-19+19
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What Happened

Thiago Alves did not secure a significant ground advantage against Max Griffin on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:13 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Max Griffin: -11Thiago Alves: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricMax GriffinThiago Alves
Days Since Last Fight211141
Activity ELO1 0541 267
ELO Change-11+22
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What Happened

Thiago Alves demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Max Griffin's 211-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Max Griffin: -13Thiago Alves: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricMax GriffinThiago Alves
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9851 147
ELO Change-13+15
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What Happened

Thiago Alves started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Max Griffin is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Max Griffin: -17Thiago Alves: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricMax GriffinThiago Alves
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9741 069
ELO Change-17+17
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.