October 28, 2022
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Max Griffin | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 26 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 138 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -28 |
Max Griffin overcame a 12-fight experience disadvantage (14 vs 26 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Tim Means.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 046 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 298 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Max Griffin receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 78 | 115 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 56 | 143 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 317 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Tim Means controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (143 vs 56 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (47 vs 42), superior accuracy (40.9% vs 53.8%). However, since Tim Means lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Max Griffin's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:13 | 1:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 212 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Max Griffin landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 225 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -25 |
Max Griffin demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Max Griffin capitalized on this activity level, while Tim Means's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 081 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -24 |
Max Griffin started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tim Means is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Max Griffin | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 044 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.