January 17, 2020
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Maycee Barber | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 054 | 992 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Roxanne Modafferi's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Roxanne Modafferi for the expected result. Had Maycee Barber pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Maycee Barber | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 038 | 994 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Maycee Barber | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 190 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Roxanne Modafferi earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Maycee Barber | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 31 | 43 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 25 | 112 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 084 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -123 | +123 |
Roxanne Modafferi dominated the striking exchanges with 112 vs 25 total strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Roxanne Modafferi capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Maycee Barber | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:16 | 10:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 085 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Roxanne Modafferi landed 1 knockdown followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Maycee Barber | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 93 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 069 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +34 |
Roxanne Modafferi demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Roxanne Modafferi capitalized on this activity level, while Maycee Barber's 93-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Maycee Barber | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 052 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +30 |
Roxanne Modafferi started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Maycee Barber is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Maycee Barber | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 038 | 994 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.