December 8, 2023
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 992 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +32 |
Steve Garcia's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Steve Garcia for the expected result. Had Melquizael Costa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:01 | 1:01 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 005 | 1 268 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +41 |
Steve Garcia gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 10 | 49 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 982 | 1 312 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Steve Garcia controlled the striking exchanges with 41 vs 20 total strikes, 29 vs 6 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Steve Garcia capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:41 | 0:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 22 |
| Ground ELO | 948 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Steve Garcia did not secure a significant ground advantage against Melquizael Costa on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:46 of control time, 22 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 246 |
| Activity ELO | 1 008 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +23 |
Steve Garcia demonstrated standard activity with 246 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Steve Garcia capitalized on this activity level, while Melquizael Costa's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 989 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +25 |
Steve Garcia extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melquizael Costa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.