January 20, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 981 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Thiago Moises's 9-fight experience advantage (10 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Moises for the expected result. Had Melquizael Costa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:05 | 4:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 980 | 1 233 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +31 |
Thiago Moises earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:05, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Melquizael Costa was submitted.
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 50 | 33 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 45 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 977 | 993 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Thiago Moises slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 66.7% vs 46.0% accuracy. Thiago Moises capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 5:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 890 | 1 251 |
| ELO Change | -110 | +110 |
Thiago Moises dominated Melquizael Costa on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 5:31 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 987 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +16 |
Thiago Moises demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Moises capitalized on this activity level, while Melquizael Costa's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +21 |
Thiago Moises extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melquizael Costa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Melquizael Costa | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

