Melquizael Costa vs Thiago Moises

January 20, 2023

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

970
(-30)
Melquizael Costa
Winner: Thiago Moises
Submission
Round 2 • 4:05

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Melquizael Costa-30
Thiago Moises+33
1125
(+33)
Thiago Moises

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Melquizael Costa: -19Thiago Moises: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricMelquizael CostaThiago Moises
Total UFC Fights110
Experience Gap-99
Experience ELO9811 161
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

Thiago Moises's 9-fight experience advantage (10 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Moises for the expected result. Had Melquizael Costa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Melquizael Costa: -19Thiago Moises: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricMelquizael CostaThiago Moises
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9811 058
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Melquizael Costa: -20Thiago Moises: +31

Performance Statistics

MetricMelquizael CostaThiago Moises
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish4:054:05
Win Type ELO9801 233
ELO Change-20+31
💡

What Happened

Thiago Moises earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:05, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Melquizael Costa was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Melquizael Costa: -23Thiago Moises: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricMelquizael CostaThiago Moises
Significant Strikes Landed2322
Significant Strikes Attempted5033
Total Strikes Landed4345
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO977993
ELO Change-23+23
💡

What Happened

Thiago Moises slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 66.7% vs 46.0% accuracy. Thiago Moises capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Melquizael Costa: -110Thiago Moises: +110

Performance Statistics

MetricMelquizael CostaThiago Moises
Takedowns Landed04
Takedowns Attempted07
Ground Control Time0:025:31
Ground Strikes Landed010
Ground ELO8901 251
ELO Change-110+110
💡

What Happened

Thiago Moises dominated Melquizael Costa on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 5:31 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Melquizael Costa: -13Thiago Moises: +16

Performance Statistics

MetricMelquizael CostaThiago Moises
Days Since Last FightN/A211
Activity ELO9871 157
ELO Change-13+16
💡

What Happened

Thiago Moises demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Moises capitalized on this activity level, while Melquizael Costa's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Melquizael Costa: -17Thiago Moises: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricMelquizael CostaThiago Moises
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO9831 086
ELO Change-17+21
💡

What Happened

Thiago Moises extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melquizael Costa is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Melquizael Costa: -19Thiago Moises: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricMelquizael CostaThiago Moises
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9811 058
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.