September 15, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 046 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 017 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:13 | 2:13 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 124 | 1 244 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +62 |
Nate Diaz earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:13, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Melvin Guillard was submitted.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 42 | 73 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 27 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 213 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | -59 | +59 |
Nate Diaz edged the striking exchanges with 21 vs 11 significant strikes. Nate Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:43 | 1:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 957 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -68 | +68 |
Nate Diaz controlled Melvin Guillard on the ground with 2 takedowns, 1:23 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 88 | 88 |
| Activity ELO | 1 079 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +53 |
Nate Diaz demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 88 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Melvin Guillard's 88-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 033 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Nate Diaz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melvin Guillard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 017 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.