May 26, 2006
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Rick Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 029 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Melvin Guillard's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Melvin Guillard for the expected result. Had Rick Davis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Rick Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 018 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Rick Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:37 | 1:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 083 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +108 | -45 |
Melvin Guillard earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:37, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Rick Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 116 | 902 |
| ELO Change | +98 | -98 |
Melvin Guillard controlled the striking exchanges with 10 vs 5 significant strikes, 35.7% vs 50.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Melvin Guillard capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Rick Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 013 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Rick Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 131 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 039 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -21 |
Melvin Guillard demonstrated solid activity levels with 131 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Melvin Guillard capitalized on this activity level, while Rick Davis's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Rick Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 022 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Melvin Guillard started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rick Davis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Rick Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 018 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

