Melvin Guillard vs Shane Roller

July 1, 2011

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1220
(+31)
Melvin Guillard
Winner: Melvin Guillard
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 2:12

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Melvin Guillard+31
Shane Roller-25
1030
(-25)
Shane Roller

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +26Shane Roller: -26

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardShane Roller
Total UFC Fights142
Experience Gap12-12
Experience ELO1 1841 068
ELO Change+26-26
💡

What Happened

Melvin Guillard's 12-fight experience advantage (14 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Melvin Guillard for the expected result. Had Shane Roller pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +17Shane Roller: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardShane Roller
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1121 006
ELO Change+17-17
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +48Shane Roller: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardShane Roller
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish2:122:12
Win Type ELO1 3481 093
ELO Change+48-21
💡

What Happened

Melvin Guillard earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:12, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +48Shane Roller: -48

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardShane Roller
Significant Strikes Landed171
Significant Strikes Attempted4213
Total Strikes Landed171
Knockdowns Scored20
Striking ELO1 4781 043
ELO Change+48-48
💡

What Happened

Melvin Guillard dominated the striking exchanges with 17 vs 1 significant strikes, 40.5% vs 7.7% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Melvin Guillard capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +47Shane Roller: -47

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardShane Roller
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:060:00
Ground Strikes Landed40
Ground ELO1 126994
ELO Change+47-47
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +18Shane Roller: -10

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardShane Roller
Days Since Last Fight161121
Activity ELO1 2461 017
ELO Change+18-10
💡

What Happened

Melvin Guillard demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Melvin Guillard capitalized on this activity level, while Shane Roller's 121-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +29Shane Roller: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardShane Roller
Win Streak50
Win Streak ELO1 1571 011
ELO Change+29-15
💡

What Happened

Melvin Guillard continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Shane Roller's now at 0.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +17Shane Roller: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardShane Roller
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1121 006
ELO Change+17-17
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.