July 1, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 12 | -12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 184 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Melvin Guillard's 12-fight experience advantage (14 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Melvin Guillard for the expected result. Had Shane Roller pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 112 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:12 | 2:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 348 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -21 |
Melvin Guillard earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:12, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 42 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 478 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Melvin Guillard dominated the striking exchanges with 17 vs 1 significant strikes, 40.5% vs 7.7% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Melvin Guillard capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:06 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 126 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 121 |
| Activity ELO | 1 246 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -10 |
Melvin Guillard demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Melvin Guillard capitalized on this activity level, while Shane Roller's 121-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 157 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -15 |
Melvin Guillard continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Shane Roller's now at 0.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 112 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

