May 28, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 098 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Melvin Guillard's 10-fight experience advantage (11 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Melvin Guillard for the expected result. Had Waylon Lowe pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 056 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:28 | 3:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 205 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -25 |
Melvin Guillard earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:28, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 21 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 300 | 933 |
| ELO Change | +67 | -67 |
Melvin Guillard controlled the striking exchanges with 14 vs 1 significant strikes, 66.7% vs 16.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Melvin Guillard capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 1:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 016 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Melvin Guillard landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 148 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -14 |
Melvin Guillard demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Melvin Guillard capitalized on this activity level, while Waylon Lowe's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 075 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -18 |
Melvin Guillard extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Waylon Lowe is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Melvin Guillard | Waylon Lowe |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 056 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

