Melvin Guillard vs Waylon Lowe

May 28, 2010

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1119
(+33)
Melvin Guillard
Winner: Melvin Guillard
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 3:28

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Melvin Guillard+33
Waylon Lowe-27
973
(-27)
Waylon Lowe

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +25Waylon Lowe: -25

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardWaylon Lowe
Total UFC Fights111
Experience Gap10-10
Experience ELO1 098975
ELO Change+25-25
💡

What Happened

Melvin Guillard's 10-fight experience advantage (11 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Melvin Guillard for the expected result. Had Waylon Lowe pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +19Waylon Lowe: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardWaylon Lowe
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 056981
ELO Change+19-19
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +53Waylon Lowe: -25

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardWaylon Lowe
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish3:283:28
Win Type ELO1 205975
ELO Change+53-25
💡

What Happened

Melvin Guillard earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:28, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +67Waylon Lowe: -67

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardWaylon Lowe
Significant Strikes Landed141
Significant Strikes Attempted216
Total Strikes Landed201
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 300933
ELO Change+67-67
💡

What Happened

Melvin Guillard controlled the striking exchanges with 14 vs 1 significant strikes, 66.7% vs 16.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Melvin Guillard capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +28Waylon Lowe: -28

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardWaylon Lowe
Takedowns Landed01
Takedowns Attempted06
Ground Control Time0:021:27
Ground Strikes Landed50
Ground ELO1 016972
ELO Change+28-28
💡

What Happened

Melvin Guillard landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +36Waylon Lowe: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardWaylon Lowe
Days Since Last Fight112N/A
Activity ELO1 148986
ELO Change+36-14
💡

What Happened

Melvin Guillard demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Melvin Guillard capitalized on this activity level, while Waylon Lowe's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +21Waylon Lowe: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardWaylon Lowe
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 075982
ELO Change+21-18
💡

What Happened

Melvin Guillard extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Waylon Lowe is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Melvin Guillard: +19Waylon Lowe: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricMelvin GuillardWaylon Lowe
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 056981
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.