November 16, 2007
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael Bisping | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 088 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Rashad Evans's 2-fight experience advantage (7 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rashad Evans for the expected result. Had Michael Bisping pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Michael Bisping | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 059 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael Bisping | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 213 | 1 252 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Rashad Evans receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Michael Bisping | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 96 | 87 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 52 | 38 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 234 | 1 307 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Michael Bisping controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (40 vs 23), superior accuracy (41.7% vs 26.4%). However, since Michael Bisping lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rashad Evans's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael Bisping | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 16 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:34 | 7:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 113 | 1 411 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
Rashad Evans dominated Michael Bisping on the ground with 6 vs 2 takedowns, 7:42 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Bisping | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 71 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 1 114 | 1 263 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +30 |
Rashad Evans demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rashad Evans capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Bisping's 71-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Bisping | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 079 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Rashad Evans started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Bisping is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michael Bisping | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 059 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

