April 12, 2025
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 176 | 1 345 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +20 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (7 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:07 | 3:07 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 266 | 1 461 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +59 |
Paddy Pimblett gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 80 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 143 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 121 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 163 | 1 369 |
| ELO Change | -106 | +106 |
Paddy Pimblett dominated the striking exchanges with 121 vs 20 total strikes, 80 vs 11 significant strikes, 55.9% vs 39.3% accuracy. Paddy Pimblett capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:44 | 4:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 33 |
| Ground ELO | 1 058 | 1 308 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Paddy Pimblett controlled Michael Chandler on the ground with 1 takedown, 4:41 of control time, 33 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 260 |
| Activity ELO | 1 050 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +16 |
Paddy Pimblett demonstrated standard activity with 260 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Paddy Pimblett capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Chandler's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 7 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 037 | 1 250 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +34 |
Paddy Pimblett continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Michael Chandler's now at 0.
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 998 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.