May 6, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -16 | 16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 224 | 1 281 |
| ELO Change | +100 | -48 |
Michael Chandler overcame a 16-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 20 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Tony Ferguson.
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 032 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:17 | 0:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 312 | 1 409 |
| ELO Change | +148 | -72 |
Michael Chandler gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 53 | 50 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 27 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 283 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | +149 | -149 |
Michael Chandler controlled the striking exchanges with 27 vs 20 significant strikes, 50.9% vs 40.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Michael Chandler capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:29 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 131 | 1 268 |
| ELO Change | +81 | -81 |
Michael Chandler landed 1 knockdown followed by 9 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 357 |
| Activity ELO | 1 071 | 1 389 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -38 |
Michael Chandler demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Michael Chandler capitalized on this activity level, while Tony Ferguson's 357-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 059 | 1 411 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -39 |
Michael Chandler started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tony Ferguson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michael Chandler | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 032 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.