Michael Chiesa vs Mitch Clarke

April 3, 2015

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1097
(+28)
Michael Chiesa
Winner: Michael Chiesa
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Michael Chiesa+28
Mitch Clarke-26
984
(-26)
Mitch Clarke

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Chiesa: +30Mitch Clarke: -30

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael ChiesaMitch Clarke
Total UFC Fights75
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 0871 013
ELO Change+30-30
💡

What Happened

Michael Chiesa's 2-fight experience advantage (7 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Michael Chiesa for the expected result. Had Mitch Clarke pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Chiesa: +19Mitch Clarke: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael ChiesaMitch Clarke
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 058988
ELO Change+19-19
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Chiesa: +34Mitch Clarke: -34

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael ChiesaMitch Clarke
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 1801 049
ELO Change+34-34
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What Happened

Michael Chiesa earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Chiesa: +17Mitch Clarke: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael ChiesaMitch Clarke
Significant Strikes Landed5965
Significant Strikes Attempted128120
Total Strikes Landed9881
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 080943
ELO Change+17-17
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What Happened

Michael Chiesa edged the striking exchanges with 59 vs 65 significant strikes, 46.1% vs 54.2% accuracy. Michael Chiesa capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Chiesa: +56Mitch Clarke: -56

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael ChiesaMitch Clarke
Takedowns Landed40
Takedowns Attempted74
Ground Control Time5:212:36
Ground Strikes Landed110
Ground ELO1 128899
ELO Change+56-56
💡

What Happened

Michael Chiesa controlled Mitch Clarke on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 5:21 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Chiesa: +21Mitch Clarke: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael ChiesaMitch Clarke
Days Since Last Fight211315
Activity ELO1 108996
ELO Change+21-17
💡

What Happened

Michael Chiesa demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Michael Chiesa capitalized on this activity level, while Mitch Clarke's 315-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Chiesa: +21Mitch Clarke: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael ChiesaMitch Clarke
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 073996
ELO Change+21-19
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What Happened

Michael Chiesa started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mitch Clarke is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Chiesa: +19Mitch Clarke: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael ChiesaMitch Clarke
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 058988
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.