April 3, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Mitch Clarke |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 087 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Michael Chiesa's 2-fight experience advantage (7 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Michael Chiesa for the expected result. Had Mitch Clarke pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Mitch Clarke |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 058 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Mitch Clarke |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 180 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Michael Chiesa earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Mitch Clarke |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 59 | 65 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 128 | 120 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 98 | 81 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 080 | 943 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Michael Chiesa edged the striking exchanges with 59 vs 65 significant strikes, 46.1% vs 54.2% accuracy. Michael Chiesa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Mitch Clarke |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:21 | 2:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 11 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 128 | 899 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -56 |
Michael Chiesa controlled Mitch Clarke on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 5:21 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Mitch Clarke |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 211 | 315 |
| Activity ELO | 1 108 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -17 |
Michael Chiesa demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Michael Chiesa capitalized on this activity level, while Mitch Clarke's 315-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Mitch Clarke |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 073 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Michael Chiesa started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mitch Clarke is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Mitch Clarke |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 058 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

