January 24, 2020
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 29 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 304 | 1 234 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -34 |
Michael Chiesa overcame a 15-fight experience disadvantage (14 vs 29 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rafael Dos Anjos.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 134 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 421 | 1 417 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -54 |
Michael Chiesa earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 51 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 54 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 232 | 1 368 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Michael Chiesa controlled the striking exchanges with 54 vs 23 total strikes, 9 vs 14 significant strikes, 17.6% vs 38.9% accuracy. Michael Chiesa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:13 | 0:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 466 | 1 326 |
| ELO Change | +87 | -87 |
Michael Chiesa controlled Rafael Dos Anjos on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 10:13 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 286 | 1 435 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -33 |
Michael Chiesa demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Michael Chiesa capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Dos Anjos's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 182 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -27 |
Michael Chiesa extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Dos Anjos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 127 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.