August 2, 2024
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 24 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 270 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -26 |
Michael Chiesa overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (19 vs 24 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Tony Ferguson.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 113 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:44 | 3:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 401 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -33 |
Michael Chiesa earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:44, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 25 | 18 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 10 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 242 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Tony Ferguson controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (10 vs 4), superior accuracy (55.6% vs 16.0%). However, since Tony Ferguson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Michael Chiesa's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:34 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 275 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Michael Chiesa controlled Tony Ferguson on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:34 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 371 | 231 |
| Activity ELO | 1 278 | 1 282 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -24 |
Michael Chiesa demonstrated extended layoff with 371 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Michael Chiesa capitalized on this activity level, while Tony Ferguson's 231-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 185 | 1 278 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -30 |
Michael Chiesa started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tony Ferguson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 106 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.