August 6, 2021
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 314 | 1 328 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (16 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 139 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:25 | 3:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 440 | 1 614 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +51 |
Vicente Luque earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:25, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 12 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 273 | 1 511 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Vicente Luque slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 58.3% vs 33.3% accuracy. Vicente Luque capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:01 | 0:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 496 | 1 433 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Vicente Luque edged out Michael Chiesa on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 199 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 302 | 1 416 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +34 |
Vicente Luque demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Vicente Luque capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Chiesa's 199-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 200 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +27 |
Vicente Luque extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Chiesa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michael Chiesa | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 132 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.