April 15, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael Graves | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 057 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -24 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Michael Graves | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 042 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael Graves | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:31 | 2:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 108 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -42 |
Michael Graves earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:31, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Randy Brown was submitted.
| Metric | Michael Graves | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 22 | 19 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 26 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 045 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Michael Graves slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Michael Graves capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael Graves | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:29 | 1:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 211 | 914 |
| ELO Change | +136 | -136 |
Michael Graves dominated Randy Brown on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:29 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Michael Graves | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 279 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 042 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Michael Graves demonstrated standard activity with 279 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Michael Graves capitalized on this activity level, while Randy Brown's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Graves | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 048 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Michael Graves extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Randy Brown is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michael Graves | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.