December 18, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 125 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Nate Diaz's 8-fight experience advantage (21 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Diaz for the expected result. Had Michael Johnson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 039 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 272 | 1 378 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Nate Diaz earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 103 | 153 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 301 | 300 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 104 | 157 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 234 | 1 253 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Nate Diaz dominated the striking exchanges with 157 vs 104 total strikes, 153 vs 103 significant strikes, 51.0% vs 34.2% accuracy. Nate Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:19 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 106 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 371 |
| Activity ELO | 1 194 | 1 298 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +15 |
Nate Diaz demonstrated extended layoff with 371 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Johnson's 134-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 074 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Nate Diaz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Johnson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 039 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.