December 14, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 29 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 24 | -24 |
| Experience ELO | 1 051 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Michael Johnson's 24-fight experience advantage (29 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Michael Johnson for the expected result. Had Ottman Azaitar pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 023 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:03 | 2:03 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 273 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -30 |
Michael Johnson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 50 | 56 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 19 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 158 | 928 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -59 |
Michael Johnson controlled the striking exchanges with 38.0% vs 28.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Michael Johnson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:12 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 123 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 309 | 519 |
| Activity ELO | 1 167 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Michael Johnson demonstrated standard activity with 309 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Michael Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Ottman Azaitar's 519-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 064 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -19 |
Michael Johnson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ottman Azaitar is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Ottman Azaitar |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

