September 30, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 985 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +29 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:00 | 3:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 017 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +73 |
Paul Sass earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:00, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 26 | 16 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 051 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Michael Johnson controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (8 vs 2), superior accuracy (30.8% vs 12.5%). However, since Michael Johnson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Paul Sass's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:37 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 948 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Paul Sass edged out Michael Johnson on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 97 | 350 |
| Activity ELO | 987 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Paul Sass demonstrated standard activity with 350 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Paul Sass capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Johnson's 97-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Paul Sass extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Johnson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Paul Sass |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

