January 27, 2012
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 021 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -24 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 063 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Michael Johnson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 64 | 56 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 136 | 92 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 77 | 72 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 070 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Michael Johnson edged the striking exchanges with 64 vs 56 significant strikes, 47.1% vs 60.9% accuracy. Michael Johnson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:25 | 3:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 25 |
| Ground ELO | 968 | 821 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Michael Johnson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Shane Roller on the ground with 1 takedown, 4:25 of control time, 3 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 120 | 120 |
| Activity ELO | 1 030 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -22 |
Michael Johnson demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Michael Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Shane Roller's 120-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 007 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -21 |
Michael Johnson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Shane Roller is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.