Michael Johnson vs Thiago Moises

May 12, 2020

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1041
(-35)
Michael Johnson
Winner: Thiago Moises
Submission
Round 2 • 0:25

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Michael Johnson-35
Thiago Moises+46
1025
(+46)
Thiago Moises

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Johnson: -34Thiago Moises: +74

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael JohnsonThiago Moises
Total UFC Fights224
Experience Gap18-18
Experience ELO9781 060
ELO Change-34+74
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What Happened

Thiago Moises overcame a 18-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 22 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Michael Johnson.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Johnson: -23Thiago Moises: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael JohnsonThiago Moises
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9871 007
ELO Change-23+23
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Johnson: -66Thiago Moises: +102

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael JohnsonThiago Moises
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish0:250:25
Win Type ELO1 1431 084
ELO Change-66+102
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What Happened

Thiago Moises earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 0:25, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Michael Johnson was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Johnson: -32Thiago Moises: +32

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael JohnsonThiago Moises
Significant Strikes Landed271
Significant Strikes Attempted6016
Total Strikes Landed281
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 091955
ELO Change-32+32
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What Happened

Michael Johnson controlled the striking through superior volume (28 vs 1 total strikes), significant strike advantage (27 vs 1), superior accuracy (45.0% vs 6.3%). However, since Michael Johnson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Thiago Moises's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Johnson: -46Thiago Moises: +46

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael JohnsonThiago Moises
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted03
Ground Control Time0:210:00
Ground Strikes Landed10
Ground ELO9761 035
ELO Change-46+46
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Johnson: -31Thiago Moises: +38

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael JohnsonThiago Moises
Days Since Last Fight200256
Activity ELO1 1421 038
ELO Change-31+38
💡

What Happened

Thiago Moises demonstrated standard activity with 256 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Moises capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Johnson's 200-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Johnson: -25Thiago Moises: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael JohnsonThiago Moises
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0251 014
ELO Change-25+27
💡

What Happened

Thiago Moises started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Johnson is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Michael Johnson: -23Thiago Moises: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricMichael JohnsonThiago Moises
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9871 007
ELO Change-23+23
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.