May 12, 2020
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 18 | -18 |
| Experience ELO | 978 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +74 |
Thiago Moises overcame a 18-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 22 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Michael Johnson.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 987 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:25 | 0:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 143 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +102 |
Thiago Moises earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 0:25, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Michael Johnson was submitted.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 60 | 16 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 091 | 955 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Michael Johnson controlled the striking through superior volume (28 vs 1 total strikes), significant strike advantage (27 vs 1), superior accuracy (45.0% vs 6.3%). However, since Michael Johnson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Thiago Moises's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:21 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 976 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 200 | 256 |
| Activity ELO | 1 142 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +38 |
Thiago Moises demonstrated standard activity with 256 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Moises capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Johnson's 200-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 025 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
Thiago Moises started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Johnson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michael Johnson | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 987 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

