February 3, 2012
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael Kuiper | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Rafael Natal's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafael Natal for the expected result. Had Michael Kuiper pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Michael Kuiper | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael Kuiper | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 960 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Rafael Natal earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Michael Kuiper | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 62 | 72 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 68 | 61 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 978 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Michael Kuiper controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (30 vs 36), 1 knockdown. However, since Michael Kuiper lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rafael Natal's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael Kuiper | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 16 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:43 | 6:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 18 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 932 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -68 | +68 |
Rafael Natal controlled Michael Kuiper on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 6:24 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Kuiper | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +26 |
Rafael Natal demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Natal capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Kuiper's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael Kuiper | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Rafael Natal extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Kuiper is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michael Kuiper | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.