September 9, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael McBride | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -16 | 16 |
| Experience ELO | 981 | 1 165 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Nik Lentz's 16-fight experience advantage (17 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nik Lentz for the expected result. Had Michael McBride pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Michael McBride | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael McBride | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:17 | 4:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 980 | 1 243 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +41 |
Nik Lentz gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Michael McBride | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 31 | 50 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 42 | 80 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 958 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Nik Lentz controlled the striking exchanges with 80 vs 42 total strikes, 38 vs 16 significant strikes, 76.0% vs 51.6% accuracy. Nik Lentz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael McBride | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:32 | 7:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 26 |
| Ground ELO | 963 | 1 300 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Nik Lentz dominated Michael McBride on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 7:18 of control time, 26 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Michael McBride | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 266 |
| Activity ELO | 991 | 1 242 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +11 |
Nik Lentz demonstrated standard activity with 266 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Nik Lentz capitalized on this activity level, while Michael McBride's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael McBride | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 986 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +17 |
Nik Lentz extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael McBride is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michael McBride | Nik Lentz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.