April 21, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michael McBride | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 953 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Scott Holtzman's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Scott Holtzman for the expected result. Had Michael McBride pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Michael McBride | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 964 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michael McBride | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 940 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Scott Holtzman earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Michael McBride | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 83 | 104 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 172 | 190 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 140 | 109 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 915 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Scott Holtzman controlled the striking exchanges with 109 vs 140 total strikes, 104 vs 83 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Scott Holtzman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Michael McBride | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:56 | 6:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 36 |
| Ground ELO | 896 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Scott Holtzman controlled Michael McBride on the ground with 2 takedowns, 6:41 of control time, 36 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Michael McBride | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 224 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 971 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +41 |
Scott Holtzman demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Scott Holtzman capitalized on this activity level, while Michael McBride's 224-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michael McBride | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 966 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Scott Holtzman started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael McBride is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michael McBride | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 964 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.