March 26, 2021
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michal Oleksiejczuk | Modestas Bukauskas |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 068 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Michal Oleksiejczuk's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Michal Oleksiejczuk for the expected result. Had Modestas Bukauskas pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Michal Oleksiejczuk | Modestas Bukauskas |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 023 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michal Oleksiejczuk | Modestas Bukauskas |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 183 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Michal Oleksiejczuk receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Michal Oleksiejczuk | Modestas Bukauskas |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 56 | 58 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 122 | 167 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 77 | 62 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 179 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Michal Oleksiejczuk edged the striking exchanges with 45.9% vs 34.7% accuracy. Michal Oleksiejczuk capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Michal Oleksiejczuk | Modestas Bukauskas |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:09 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 981 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Michal Oleksiejczuk did not secure a significant ground advantage against Modestas Bukauskas on the ground with 1:09 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Michal Oleksiejczuk | Modestas Bukauskas |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 399 | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 1 113 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -16 |
Michal Oleksiejczuk demonstrated extended layoff with 399 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Michal Oleksiejczuk capitalized on this activity level, while Modestas Bukauskas's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michal Oleksiejczuk | Modestas Bukauskas |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 033 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Michal Oleksiejczuk started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Modestas Bukauskas is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michal Oleksiejczuk | Modestas Bukauskas |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

