May 17, 2013
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Paulo Thiago's 9-fight experience advantage (10 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Paulo Thiago for the expected result. Had Michel Prazeres pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 969 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Paulo Thiago earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 46 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 63 | 92 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 98 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 950 | 967 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Paulo Thiago dominated the striking exchanges with 98 vs 36 total strikes, 46 vs 30 significant strikes. Paulo Thiago capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:42 | 2:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 963 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Paulo Thiago edged out Michel Prazeres on the ground with 2 takedowns, 2:42 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Paulo Thiago demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Paulo Thiago capitalized on this activity level, while Michel Prazeres's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Paulo Thiago started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michel Prazeres is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.