November 20, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 048 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Michel Prazeres's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Michel Prazeres for the expected result. Had Valmir Lazaro pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 023 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 997 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Michel Prazeres receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 53 | 102 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 60 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 021 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Valmir Lazaro controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (60 vs 27 total strikes), significant strike advantage (41 vs 20). However, since Valmir Lazaro lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Michel Prazeres's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 14 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:01 | 3:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 079 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Michel Prazeres did not secure a significant ground advantage against Valmir Lazaro on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:01 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 280 | 266 |
| Activity ELO | 1 054 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Michel Prazeres demonstrated standard activity with 280 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Michel Prazeres capitalized on this activity level, while Valmir Lazaro's 266-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 033 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Michel Prazeres started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Valmir Lazaro is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michel Prazeres | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

