November 10, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michel Quinones | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 955 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Sage Northcutt's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sage Northcutt for the expected result. Had Michel Quinones pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Michel Quinones | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 960 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michel Quinones | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 931 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Sage Northcutt earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Michel Quinones | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 79 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 161 | 161 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 82 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 885 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Sage Northcutt controlled the striking exchanges with 82 vs 55 total strikes, 79 vs 55 significant strikes, 49.1% vs 34.2% accuracy. Sage Northcutt capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Michel Quinones | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 875 | 977 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Sage Northcutt edged out Michel Quinones on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 0:43 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Michel Quinones | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 329 |
| Activity ELO | 963 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Sage Northcutt demonstrated standard activity with 329 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Sage Northcutt capitalized on this activity level, while Michel Quinones's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michel Quinones | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 961 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Sage Northcutt started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michel Quinones is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michel Quinones | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 960 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

