April 14, 2017
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 067 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Rose Namajunas's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rose Namajunas for the expected result. Had Michelle Waterson-Gomez pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:47 | 2:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 107 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +64 |
Rose Namajunas earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:47, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Michelle Waterson-Gomez was submitted.
| Metric | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 33 | 72 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 56 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 022 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -80 | +80 |
Rose Namajunas controlled the striking exchanges with 56 vs 31 total strikes, 47 vs 22 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Rose Namajunas capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:50 | 4:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 33 |
| Ground ELO | 1 062 | 1 392 |
| ELO Change | -97 | +97 |
Rose Namajunas dominated Michelle Waterson-Gomez on the ground with 1 takedown, 4:33 of control time, 33 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 259 |
| Activity ELO | 1 025 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Rose Namajunas demonstrated standard activity with 259 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rose Namajunas capitalized on this activity level, while Michelle Waterson-Gomez's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 029 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Rose Namajunas started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michelle Waterson-Gomez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.