January 22, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Michihiro Omigawa | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 942 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Thiago Tavares's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Tavares for the expected result. Had Michihiro Omigawa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Michihiro Omigawa | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 960 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Michihiro Omigawa | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 934 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Thiago Tavares earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Michihiro Omigawa | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 32 | 43 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 90 | 68 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 948 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Michihiro Omigawa controlled the striking through superior volume (90 vs 68 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (11 vs 19). However, since Michihiro Omigawa lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Thiago Tavares's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Michihiro Omigawa | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 7 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 14 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:50 | 6:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 879 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Thiago Tavares controlled Michihiro Omigawa on the ground with 7 vs 1 takedowns, 6:41 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Michihiro Omigawa | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 124 | 124 |
| Activity ELO | 963 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +33 |
Thiago Tavares demonstrated solid activity levels with 124 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Tavares capitalized on this activity level, while Michihiro Omigawa's 124-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Michihiro Omigawa | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 961 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Thiago Tavares started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michihiro Omigawa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Michihiro Omigawa | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 960 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

